Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

This research presents a biophysical model that maps the molecular properties of SARS-CoV-2’s receptor binding domain into an epistatic fitness landscape. By linking the binding affinities of the virus to its epidemic fitness, we offer a powerful tool for understanding and predicting the emergence and success of new viral variants. Our model, validated with real-world data and informed by theoretical insights, provides a foundation for interpreting the evolutionary trajectory of past pandemics and predicting those of the future. The adaptability of this biophysical model extends to the key proteins of other viruses as well, signifying its potential in guiding public health interventions, and advancing our understanding of viral evolution.